Abstract

Ukraine's capacity to carry out climate policy in agriculture depends on institutions that war, outmigration, and an incomplete legislative mandate have each weakened. This report measures that capacity across four indicators, namely population and demographic trends, agricultural and land trends, the climate mandate in Ukrainian legislation, and the independence and capacity of the civil service.

Institutional capacity, which political science and public administration also term state capacity or administrative capacity, covers the leadership, incentives, systems, resources, and personnel that allow a public body to meet its objectives. Climate governance in agriculture requires that capacity, because climate adaptation policy obliges ministries to collect data, revise plans against that data, coordinate across levels of government, and enforce standards on farms. This assessment therefore treats the working conditions of Ukrainian civil servants as evidence about climate policy delivery.

The assessment compares Ukraine with Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova, Georgia, the Netherlands, and France, countries that share a post-socialist trajectory with Ukraine or that serve as European Union agricultural benchmarks. Quantitative evidence comes from the World Development Indicators that the World Bank publishes, from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, from the Fragile States Index that the Fund for Peace publishes, from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, and from a 2018 survey of Ukrainian civil servants that researchers fielded through the Civil Service Feedback Loop Initiative with Stanford University's Center for Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law.

Ukrainian agriculture retains roughly 32.7 million hectares of arable land, and civil servants in the ministries surveyed report hiring that rests mainly on professional knowledge and work experience. Demographic loss, conflict-related land contamination, gaps in the climate adaptation mandate, and salary-based dissatisfaction within public administration each constrain what those institutions can deliver. European Union accession and approximation to the Common Agricultural Policy give Ukraine an external schedule against which to close those gaps.

Executive Summary

Estimating each country's ability to implement climate resilience policies and enhance environmental sustainability is essential to tackling the collective threat of climate change. Agriculture and water management are key areas that directly enhance resilience to climate change, but perhaps remain under addressed. For Ukraine, Russia's full-scale invasion and war of aggression has exacerbated environmental damage, calling into question how rebuilding the agricultural sector of the country will progress.

Additionally, efforts towards accession to the European Union may require approximation of legislation and efforts associated with the EU Green Deal and Common Agricultural Policy 2023–27, which promote sustainable agriculture.

Introduction

This report provides an overview of institutional challenges within Ukraine's agricultural sector, focusing on the concept of institutional capacity. Originating at the time of the Marshall Plan, institutional capacity and capacity building have been crucial in contextualising post-conflict reconstruction efforts.

Institutional capacity is defined as the quality of leadership, incentives, systems, resources, and personnel that produce results based on the mission, goals, and objectives of the institution.

USAID, Institutional Capacity Assessment Tool (2013)

This assessment aims to provide policymakers and stakeholders with insights into Ukraine's agricultural institutional landscape, identifying areas for potential improvement and international cooperation. Comparison countries include Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Netherlands, Moldova, Georgia, and France — nations that share historical circumstances or represent EU agricultural benchmarks.

Population & Demographic Trends

Estimating Ukraine's current resident population presents unique challenges due to territorial occupation, outmigration of skilled individuals, and refugee and internally displaced person movements. Employment in agriculture accounts for 14% of total formally registered employment in Ukraine, down from 23% in 1998.

Agricultural & Land Trends

Fertilizer and pesticide consumption both enables Ukraine to produce export-oriented crops to fund its war effort, but also contributes toward environmental degradation. Compared with other European countries, Ukraine's use of fertilizers is relatively low, though inorganic fertilizer use has increased since the early 1990s.

Inorganic fertilizer use by crop type reveals a structural shift: industrial crops and maize have grown substantially as a share of total fertilizer use, reflecting wartime reallocation of agricultural resources toward export-oriented production.

Sustainable agriculture currently takes place in Ukraine, but the full extent of its utilisation is difficult to ascertain. Official reports only capture organic agriculture, likely undercounting farms using sustainable techniques without formal certification. Data on organic agriculture shows more limited adoption compared to EU counterpart countries, with all comparison countries increasing organic agriculture over time.

Climate Change Mandate & Legislation

While several pieces of legislation for climate adaptation and sustainability have been approved and have come into force — first in 2019 but also as recently as 2024 — a need remains for connection between the State Environmental Policy and agriculture.

Recommended mandate components not yet fully addressed

• A mandate for regular policy review to reflect new data
• A mandate for Monitoring and Evaluation of climate change itself and progression of adaptation strategies
• A mandate for engaging stakeholders for support and input
• A mandate for action at subnational levels and across national ministries
• Compatibility between adaptation strategies and other national mandates

Interest in EU accession and policy approximation for the Association Agreement has provided impetus for environmental policy reforms. However, more needs-based assessments have only recognised environmental sustainability in terms of damage suffered as a result of conflict, with criticism of recovery plans focusing primarily on production volumes over sustainability.

Civil Service Independence & Capacity

Do formal rules hinder or help meeting job objectives?

Ease of interaction with different parties

Respondents reported the most ease interacting with colleagues in their own work unit and their direct supervisor. Interaction with political leadership, specialists on civil service reform, and external experts was comparatively harder.

Does management take expert suggestions into account?

Factors important for securing a posting

Professional knowledge and work experience were identified as most important for being hired. Loyalty to superiors, personal connections, and political connections were reported as less important — though with meaningful variation in responses.

Reported discrimination in the civil service

Discrimination based on gender, sexual orientation, and religion were not strongly reported. However, discrimination based on age, rank, and tenure appear more prominent.

Ability to report violations without fear of reprisal

Civil service vs. private sector preference

Conclusions

Collectively, these four indicator areas form a holistic view of Ukraine's institutional capacity to implement sustainable agriculture and water management. Although not all are directly related to climate action, these measures combine both climate relevant and climate specific indicators:

• Ukraine faces severe demographic challenges distinct from comparable nations — including outmigration of skilled workers, an increasing population with disabilities, and conflict-related casualties — which directly reduce available workforce for institutional implementation of climate policy.
• Ukraine presents large areas of arable land, but faces significant conflict-related land contamination. Comparatively poor measured utilisation of sustainable farming techniques and limited data collection hinder full assessment.
• Ukraine has adopted several measures aimed at developing sustainable agriculture, though implementation and evaluation remain difficult during the ongoing conflict. Key mandate components — including monitoring, subnational action, and cross-ministry coordination — remain unaddressed.
• Ukraine's civil service data (2018) suggest salary-based dissatisfaction and discrimination based on tenure and rank. However, employees demonstrated professional initiative and relatively merit-based hiring, suggesting underlying institutional capability.

Data and Methods

This assessment combines five quantitative sources with a documentary review of Ukrainian environmental and agricultural legislation. Each figure below carries a table of the plotted values and a link to those values as a comma-separated file. Figure numbers reproduce the numbering of the original draft, so the sequence skips several numbers.

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